For many conservatives who drank the party cool aid last night’s results came as quite a shock. Many are waking up today asking what went wrong? To give people my quick take on what happened last night let me share some quick points that I believe are worth thinking about in the coming days.
1. The democrat’s get out the vote effort was superior. In many states the dems banked enough early votes to withstand Romney’s election day surge.
2. Republican claims of skewed polls with over sampling of democrats turned out to be wrong. This is the main culprit for many conservative’s shock and dismay at the outcome last night. All the republican elite making bold claims of a Romney victory based their assumptions on the idea that the major polls had oversampled democrats and that the reality of election day would mean less dems than predicted resulting in a major Romney victory. In short, they were flat out wrong and embarrassed. Not only did they embarrass themselves but their conservative followers feel let down, and rightly so.
3. The entire Republican Party suffered a major black eye last night not because Romney lost but because they did such an effective job of selling the faithful on the idea that the polls were wrong that their credibility with these same people and the nation as a whole has been diminished.
4. Fox News also is battered because they gave these pundits predicting a major Romney victory big air time. Many will associate the pundits (even though they are just analysts) with the Fox News brand. So just like in point #3 above its not just the people viewing Fox but also the nation as a whole thinks less of the network after the Romney victory narrative crumbled in the face of reality.
5. Sandy seemed to blunt Romney’s momentum and help the president. Before the storm I seem to recall that Romney was ahead in the RCP average on national polls and behind once it was over. A case of bad luck for Romney and terrible destruction for the area hit by the storm.
6. Before results started coming in last night at about 6pm the alarm bells inside my head were starting to go off after reading that the economy was the number one issue but that close to a majority of voters were still blaming Bush for the economy.
7. I already talked about Fox News but let me now turn to the MSM. There is no doubt that Romney did not get a fair shake from the press and Obama got a pass from most of them on Benghazi. The fact that Obama was not held to account by the MSM for what happened there is an embarrassment.
8. The conservative movement now has some hard questions to ask of its self like the obvious “why did we lose?” Some of the exit polling has suggested that the so called “war on women” narrative employed by the Obama campaign was effective. Also the latino vote seems to have played a large factor in Florida and Colorado. Not to be forgotten is the issue of gay marriage that appears to have won approval on a state ballot for the first time ever. These issues will have to scrutinized within the party to come up with a “winning” response the next time.