World On The Brink

 

The world today has not been in a state of flux this great since the collapse of the Soviet Union about 20 years ago.  The difference between now and then was unquestioned American power militarily, economically, and politically.  Today that is no longer the case and the world is worse off for it.  In reality the danger to the world has not been this great since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1963. 

Threats Of War

1.  From the Iranian pursuit of nuclear weapons to near civil war in Syria the middle east could explode in a major war drawing in outside powers like the US that could have disastrous consequences for the entire globe.

2.  The Arab Spring has resulted in a change of leadership in key countries that have left many guessing what those nations (think Egypt) strategic direction will become.  This level of doubt has added a new twist to the problems of thinking through a potential crisis in the region.  Just like a free market economy despises uncertainty in policy so does the strategic thinker.  Uncertainty in a country’s geo-political thinking leaves its neighbors only able to guess and make assumptions with all the consequences that entails.

3.  Mexico is fighting an insurgency every bit as lethal as that in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The only difference is that we share a large unguarded border with this failed state.  The threat from the flow of illegal drugs and possible terrorist infiltration cannot be underestimated.  The www.latimes.com did a story in June of 2011 (over a year ago) that said 34,000 had already died as a result of the military crack down against drug gangs, it hasn’t gotten any better since then either.  Although the mexican economy is doing well the possibility that this violence will ultimately collapse Mexican authority over large parts of their own territory cannot be ruled out.

4.  Tensions in Asia continue to rise as China begins to flex its muscles by attempting to enforce its disputed territorial claims throughout the region.

5.  Iraq today still struggles with severe violence as the government attempts to finish off the insurgency there.

6.  Afghanistan at best can only be described as a long work in progress.  Which, oh by the way, has to be finished off by Afghans.  Who wants to wager what the outcome will be once US troops leave by 2o14.

7.  Nations like China, Russia, Iran, and Syria seem to be working in informal cooperation against the United States.  Although the US could counter each country individually or even in groups of two, when they all align against America it would be near impossible for America to impose its will on a situation like the insurgency in Syria.  Right now you have China and Russia actively working against the US administration via the UN Security Council to prevent Washington from resolving the situation.  With Europe consumed by the Euro nightmare the United States now truly stands alone against a powerful informal alliance of countries that do not share western values, and are actively working to undermine western strategic goals in the middle east and beyond. 

Economic Collapse

1.  All eyes towards Europe for in spite of continued European attempts to blame America the Europeans have managed to design and implement the biggest threat to the global economy since communism.  They did such a bad job engineering the institutions and laws governing the Euro that its collapse seems all but guaranteed, and it almost makes you wonder if they intended for this to happen from the beginning.  An outright collapse of the Euro would throw the global economy in turmoil and set off a chain of events so destructive that it would take a generation for the world to recover.

2.  Unfortuanately the problems facing the Euro also weigh on the UK, US, and Japan among others.  The difference at least for now is that these countries have the proper institutions and laws in place to attempt to deal with the problem in a reasonable manner.

3.  The entire global economy appears to slowing down all at the same time including the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) which were partly responsible for helping to prop up the global economy during the 2008 meltdown.  If everybody slows down at once where will the help come from this time?

Conclusion

As the world hurdles towards darkness one has to wonder if this madness can be stopped?  I am sure that many of the situations can be managed to outcomes that are not so catastrophic, but the original idea in the first paragraph of massive change and imminent danger to global order should not be underestimated.  The challenges are as great as they are numerous, although some challenges (perhaps Afghanistan) will appear as less important if others play out in dire fashion.  The two that I feel are the most worrisome; the Euro, and Iran are also the two most likely to come to a head in the near future.  Both of these situations are real and will be resolved one way or another.  The Euro will either collapse dragging down the world economy with it or the Europeans will take the necessary steps in fixing the Euro.  Iran will either get the bomb and begin to act even more belligerent, or the US and Israel will strike Iran to try to prevent this.  The problem is that a strike will only delay Iran, the only way to prevent them from getting the bomb is to end the regime.  Unfortunately after the debacle in Iraq no one has the stomach for that kind of action so it will be interesting to see what happens.  Either way both of these issues will be resolved in the near future for better or worse.  

How many have died in Mexico’s drug war? – latimes.com

 Iran, Russia, China, Syria Plan Massive War Game with 90,000

 

US Reclaims Super Computer Crown

For the first time in several years the US has the world’s fastest supercomputer with the Department of Energy’s new IBM produced Sequoia.  The computer will be used to run simulated nuclear weapons test in the hopes of extending the life of the US’s nuclear deterrent without having to set off a real nuke.  The Sequoia is 1.5 times faster than the previous champ that was made in Japan.  However, it is not just speed that makes the Sequoia great, it is much more energy efficient.  The Sequoia consumes 7.9 megawatts vs. 12.6 for the Japanese super computer which can be a pretty big deal when a supercomputer can consume millions of dollars in electricity per year.  Building supercomputers is like an arms race being number one matters for prestige but also to compete globally in scientific research you must have massive computing power.  The Sequoia can do in days what a supercomputer 20 years ago would have taken months or maybe even years to calculate if it tried to do the most comples problems being worked on today.

US regains supercomputer crown…

How IBM Built the Most Powerful Computer in the WorldRead more: How IBM Built the Most Powerful Computer in the World – Popular Mechanics

China Puts First Woman In Space, Who Cares?

 

China’s launched its first woman into space and I have to ask, who cares?  Is this some major milestone that the rest of the world should really take note of?  I could understand it being a big story in China because she is Chinese, as for the rest of the world especially the US and Russia which have had female astronauts in space for literally decades it seems rather redundant?  Frankly, I’m tired of hearing about it this week and I am into space news.  The way the US media has made this out to be a huge deal is just something beyond me, I don’t understand it.  The real story here is that China sent 3 astronauts into space to perform docking manuevers for the first time with the space capsule Heavenly Palace.  This is actually important news because once mastered the docking skills will mark an important milestone for China’s space program as it tries to acquire the skills necessary to become a leading nation in space.  The fact that a woman happened to be one of the three really is not news worthy outside of China.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valentina_Tereshkova

China puts its first woman astronaut into orbit

This woman was newsworthy because she was the first woman in space Russian cosmanaut Valentina Vladimirovna “Valya” Tereshkova who launched into space way back in 1963.

 

This Is Not A UFO

 

For the second time in a short span people have seen one of the US military’s newest drones being transported by truck and thought they were witnessing a UFO in transit.  No folks it is just the X-47B, a carrier launched stealth drone that is still in the testing phase.  Should it eventually join the fleet on active duty it would mark a milestone finally achieved for the US Navy because while the air force has had stealth capabilities for literally decades the navy has been left with conventional aircraft to get the job done.  This would be a serious upgrade for the navy greatly increasing their reconnaissance and strike capabilities.  Since the US Navy will be in the lead in confronting China this is also something they can’t afford to be without.

X-47B Completes Cali Flight Testing, Moves to th

X-47B – First Navy Stealth UAV Ready – TFOT – The Future Of Things

 

Who Is #1?

 

Who has the world’s number one economy in terms of size and who does the world think is number one?  That was the subject of a world-wide poll conducted recently.  The results were interesting with both the people’s of China and America thinking the other held the title.  In reality it is still America, but according to some experts that will change at the end of this decade with China expected to finally eclipse the US.  I say finally eclipse but that is misleading because the speed with which China’s economy has risen has been breath-taking.  For instance, back in 2004 or so there was a report done by an investment bank that said China would not pass up the US until around 2043 or so, so much for that.  What else is noteworthy about the study is that much of the world already assumes China is number one.  While China becoming number does not necessarily mean that they will rule the world right away, after all according to the article I read America became number one in 1871.  Most agree that it did not command the world until after World War II.  That is quite a long time from becoming the biggest economy to assuming true global leadership, although one has to factor that time seemingly moves faster today because technology pushes great events to happen faster.  This much is sure the United States went from unchallenged global supremacy at the beginning of this century to a super power not looking so super in the short span of less than ten years.  Well, at least it should be an interesting time to come.  Be sure to check out the link below and see who the world thinks is number one right now.

Daily chart

The world’s biggest economy

Europe Overwhelmingly Favors Obama

 

 

French Obama supporters react to his election victory in November 2008.

 

If the Europeans could vote in the US presidential election Obama would win one of the most lopsided victories in US history.  Obama had the most support in France (no real surprise there) with 92% saying they would vote for him.  Interestingly enough China and much of the middle east were all against Obama’s reelection, so much for his dialogue with Islam.  The way I see it is all ways do the opposite of what the french would do and you can’t go wrong.  The first link below takes you to the original story which is pretty brief.  The second link takes you to a recent report about global attitudes towards the US, dealing with many issues like politics, business, culture, etc.  It is pretty interesting, it even shows you how opinions have changed over time.  If you ever cared what the rest of the world thinks of America you should take a look.

92% Want Obama Reelected – In FRANCE!

http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2012/06/Pew-Global-Attitudes-U.S.-Image-Report-FINAL-June-13-2012.pdf

China, Japan, And Germany Are The Real Axis Of Evil

 

The title says it all, the nations listed above prey on all the other nations they trade with by promoting their export based economies that purposely intervene to keep their currencies weak, have policies designed to discourage consumption, and encourage saving money.  Well that doesn’t sound that bad does it, they are only organizing themselves in a smart way, being competitive.  Wrong, their policies and the massive global imbalances (trade deficits countries like the US have with all of them) are directly responsible for the economic crisis in 2008.  Their trade surpluses with our country helped to fuel the housing bubble in this country that eventually went bust and collapsed the financial markets here.  It is well documented that German economic policies or german influence on EU economic policy has greatly contributed to the current crisis in Europe.  German banks helped fuel the housing bubble in Spain, as a matter of fact it is quite possible that the Euro has or will eventually turn into nothing short of a German economic empire, accomplishing what they failed to do militarily in the last century. Free Trade is a grand idea and would probably be a great thing for America if we could ever get it, but we won’t get it unless we  hold predatory nations such as these to account and level the playing field once and for all.  Until then we are just waiting for the next big melt down to happen.

Eurointelligence – Currency – The Weapon of Choice in Trade Wars

Insane in Spain – NYTimes.com

 

America’s Crippling Deficits

You often hear about how bad the budget or trade deficits are, but what you rarely see is an in depth look at both of these economic indicators and their historical trends. Add to this a little historical background information like the fact that since the Kennedy Round of trade negotiations went into effect in the late 1960’s the United States has only ran a budget surplus two times out of a possible 44 years. I certainly do not claim to be an economist but why don’t you take a look at these graphs and come up with your own opinion about whether or not the information on these charts represent the healthy byproduct of a nation’s trade relationship with the rest of the world or could they tell us that we might need to address these problems before they completely consume us. While you look at these charts keep in mind that the trigger for the last economic meltdown here in 2008 was when the housing bubble burst. This bubble was fed by foreign investment from the nations we run large trade deficits with.

So as you can see soon after the Kennedy Round went into effect the nation began flirting with running a trade deficit in the late 1960’s, this became permanent by the mid 1970’s. Now below take a look at a chart about the historical trend of budget deficits.

As you can see above the trend, while not exact, does follow a similar pattern which to me suggests the two are interrelated. The only exception being the latter years of the Clinton’s administration showing a surplus, which although I can’t prove right now, I would attribute much of that to unusual circumstances like the tech bubble. This leads me to wonder if since the introduction of the Kennedy Round of trade agreements has almost all of our gdp growth since the late 1960’s been because of deficit spending helping to prop up the economy, which as you see by the chart above only seems to need more and more deficits to get any kind of growth as time goes by. Like I said before I don’t claim to be an economist so I would be curious to hear what others had to say, but I also think that the typical knee jerk reaction from a free trade die-hard about all trade is good no matter the deficit doesn’t seem to work here considering we do have to pay back governmental debt. It also begs the question, is the whole free trade policy just one massive wealth redistribution scheme were the US sends all its good manufacturing jobs to Asia in return for cheap trinkets?  Or better yet, do we really have a real free trade relationship with countries like China or are they taking advantage of the spirit of free trade (if you have read past articles hear you will remember that this blog asserts that our trade relationship with the Chinese is unbalanced at best and possibly predatory on their part at worst) ? These are all legitimate questions that I feel have for too long been ignored by our so-called leaders.

GATT’s seven rounds of trade talks span more than thirty years …

 The Sceptical Market Observer: What Caused the US Housing Bubble?

China Vs. America

 

There is a great article over at www.foreignpolicy.com that deals with problems the US military faces in confronting China.  The article points out the obvious advantages China would have in any engagement, first and foremost it would take place on their turf.  Unfortunately Chinese advantages go beyond that because they are playing in their backyard the Chinese will be able to accomplish their objectives, like threatening Taiwan with annihilation, without even leaving their own country by using thousands of land based missiles to literally rain destruction on Taiwan.  To counter this America because of the vast distance from the US will have to use naval power to try to prevent this.  However, with recent advances in Chinese anti-ship missile technology and because they can just swarm US ships with an unstoppable amount of missiles it will be difficult for the US to protect Taiwan.  Have a look at this excerpt from the original article to get a better understanding of the problem.

“But Air-Sea Battle still faces enormous challenges in overcoming the “home court” advantage a continental power enjoys deploying its missile forces from hidden, dispersed, and hardened sites. In addition, the United States faces a steep “marginal cost” problem with an opponent like China; additional defenses for U.S. ships are more expensive than additional Chinese missiles. And China can acquire hundreds or even thousands of missiles for the cost of one major U.S. warship.

Given these structural weaknesses, Air-Sea Battle’s success will rely not on endlessly parrying the enemy’s missiles, but striking deeply at the adversary’s command posts, communications networks, reconnaissance systems, and basing hubs in order to prevent missiles from being launched in the first place. Such strikes would mean attacks on space systems, computer networks, and infrastructure, with implications for the broader civilian economy and society.Some critics of Air-Sea Battle reason that raising the stakes in this manner would make terminating a conflict much more difficult and would escalate the conflict into domains — such as space and cyber — that are particular vulnerabilities for the United States.”

So from reading that excerpt it is pretty clear that our side thinks it can win vs. China, but for this strategy to truly be successful China also needs to think the US will win otherwise they will actually be tempted to test their luck.

This Week at War: An Arms Race America Can’t Win

X-37B Supposed To Fianally Land After Year In Space

The US Airforce is rumored to have ordered the return to earth of its space plane the X-37B after spending about one year in space doing classified work.  There has been much speculation as to what the mission of the space plane was from supposedly spying on Chinese satellites to acting as a spy satellite itself, but the truth is nobody outside the pentagon really knows. 

Secret mission accomplished: America’s mysterious space plane to land after a YEAR in orbit – and no one knows what it did up there